March 2023 trades respond to the lion!

“In like a lion, out like a lamb” (hopefully)
-Old Farmer’s Alamanac (except the hopefully part)

This weather folklore stems from ancestral beliefs in balance. If the weather at the start of March is bad (roaring, like a roaring lion), the month should end with good weather (gentle, like a lamb).

Let’s also hope that is the case for the Fast Follow Investor portfolio.

This month’s changes

My portfolio changes as of March 1, 2023:

  • Eliminate US Mortgage REITs: ~10% 🔽
  • Reduce International Stocks: ~10% 🔽
  • Reduce exposure to Gold: ~25% 🔽
  • Increase Cash, once again(!): ~45% 🔼

The resulting March 2023 Fast Follow Investor portfolio: roughly 35% international stocks, 15% gold, and 50% cash.

February’s performance

So far, so bad. :-(

February was a difficult month with nearly all flavors of investments declining in value. Everything! Stocks, bonds, gold, and commodities. All of January’s gains have been more than wiped out.

Fast Follow Investor model performance. Feb 2023: -5.1% 2023 YTD: -1.2%

Always think long-term

In difficult months like this one, remember critical facts about the portfolio:

  • A long-term annual return of >12%
  • Recovers to a positive return in 3 years or less (currently negative for 14 months)
  • Touts a 5% “forever” rate for retirement withdrawals… this is huge!

Never forget the 36 years performance graph, for reference:

Brian Herriot, Fast Follow Investor @brianh